Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Home Saver Home Loan - Watch Out!

This is my understanding of how the Home Saver loan operates (as against what is told to you when the loan product is sold).

Standard Chartered bank (SCB) offers Home Saver home loans where the home loan is linked with a Current Account where the borrower could deposit money. The interest to the extent of the deposited money will be waived (or what is called as interest saved). This is good because you'll save significant interest. However, there is a catch. The deposits are never treated as the payments towards the principal. This implies that your principal outstanding reduces at the same rate as it was with your normal loan.

For example: if you had taken a loan of Rs 10 lakhs, with an EMI of 10000 per month. For simplicity of calculation, let us say that the EMI comprises of Rs 9000 towards interest and Rs 1000 towards principal. Now, you made 2 lakhs in cash deposits in the linked current account. This deposit will make your interest payments go down. So if you're paying your full EMI of Rs 10000 per month then, your principal component is Rs 1000, your interest savings is Rs 2000 (approximately), this interest savings should go to the principal.

Going to an extreme case, let us say that you had deposited Rs 10 lakhs in the bank account (you could have cleared the loan - however, you wanted to have an option of taking that amount as liquid cash for you to use for other purposes - if required). This means that no interest is being paid. Ideally, since the EMI is being paid, all EMI must go to the principal.

The above story looks appealing. However, this is not how real computations might be happening. The real computation could be as follows. The EMI payment is taken as the actual EMI minus the interest saved. So, the principal deduction is very small, and happens at the same rate as if it is a normal loan. The interest savings are tracked. What effect does this have? The assumption that your full EMI is being deducted from the current account is *WRONG*. If your full EMI was deducted then the principal outstanding should have reduced rapidly because "full loan amount" is in the current account. However, since this does not happen, and the principal outstanding moves down slowly, if you'd want to close the account after few years, you'd still have a large principal outstanding. In the above example, when you have 10 lakhs in the bank account, the principal outstanding decreases (approximately) at Rs 1000 per month. Thus, after two years your principal outstanding goes down by Rs 24000. However, you'd have expected it to go down by 2.4 lakhs assuming that the entire EMI would go to the principal outstanding because you need not pay any interest. So, if you're planning to close a loan after two years, the 2.5% penalty will be applied on 9.76 lakhs (instead of 7.6 lakhs). This is a significant loss because you'd be paying an excess of around 2.5% penalty on approx. Rs 2 lakhs.

Note: Many other banks also offer similar home loan product. Most likely, they also operate the same way.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

new type of internet auction sites - bid20.com

Recently a friend of mine mentioned about a new twist to internet auction sites - bid20.com. The site claims that you can win item at a very low price. Is it really true?

How does bid20 auction work? Here are some steps:

1) Buy N bids at the price specified. Each bid is prices > Rs 10, in bundles specified by bid20
2) Go to the item listing and bid one at a time when u r not the highest bidder
3) The last bidder will be the winning bidder. All the other bidders who had bid lost the money for the bids they've made.

What does the winner get?

Let us consider an item that has an MRP of Rs 1000, and assuming that each bid costs you Rs 10, here are some scenarios:
1) You are the only bidder. In this case, you'll only bid once and your cost is Rs 10, and you'll get the item for Rs 10. This is good for the buyer, and a loss for bid20. This is a very rare case.
2) When there are more than one bidder, say 20 bidders. During the bidding process let us say that each bidder bids an average of 10 bids, and you are the last and the winning bidder. In this case there are a total of 200 bids, which means the price realized by bid20 is Rs 2000, which is good for bid20. This is also good for the winner because the cost for the winner is only Rs 100 (10 bids x Rs 10). However, there are 19 bidders who lost an average of Rs 100 each, and are potentially not happy about the loss. (Note: they might recover this loss by winning another auction - gamble?)
3) Scenario same as 2. However, the winner steps in just before the auction close, and after 190 bids have come in. He has more resources to bid at because he is starting from zero and the others at an average had already bid more than 15 times. Thus, the late entrant bidder, and more importantly very sparse bidder or a bidder who spends his bids miserly, is going to benefit a lot because he needs to spend fewer bids to win the auction. Bid20 is still not at loss. The winner here will maximize his returns. However, the initial bidders will have maximum dissatisfaction.

Who is at a loss?

Often, people do not realize the potential for loss. Auctions bring out impulsive nature in the bidders. Many of them don't analyze or realize how go gain maximum out of minimum bids. Also, people are used to ebay style bidding where the bidding does not cost you, and  one has to pay only as a winner. However, in bid20 style auctions, people start losing money (except the winner) with every bid. This is where the potential for a loss exists.

Business Model for Bid20:
1) Bid20 benefits a lot because (a) it gets money upfront by selling the bids - whether the buyer spends the bids or not is not its concern (b) The price/bid can be adjusted by it at the time of selling the bids, which makes it realize the price of the item at the rate it decides.
2) It can make a loss if there are not many bids on that item. However, bid20 says that it reserves a right to cancel the auction - it can protect itself.

The only concern for this business model is the user dissatisfaction. Over a long run, users realize that they're losing money when they bid and they not being the winner. When people realize that winning is possible only if they enter the auction at the closing stages, each auction will see traffic at the last moment. However, there is a catch here. The auction can get indefinitely extended if bids are received within 15 seconds of the auction end. Thus, there is no right time to enter the auction unless you see lots of people had already bid on the item.

Conclusion: The bid20 model will work and will have a buzz factor until users realize what they're getting into, and realize that they are accumulating losses. Once the buzz factor fades away and user realization happens, the user participation will go down. The Nov'09-Feb'10 Alexa traffic plots indicate this trend. Bid20 can continue with their model by bringing in new users; however, retaining the users might be difficult in the current model. Some new aspect must be introduced into this model to make it work over a longer period.

Notes from internet Auction History: There were auction sites like ubid, yahoo-auction, etc., that had the concept of extending the life of auction when the bids happen within certain time frame of the end of the auction. All these auction sites had decline in traffic while ebay kept gaining share. The sellers were happy to have fixed-time auction because of better operation management, while the buyers were happy to set a maximum price and time for an auction, and spend less time for buying an item. May be, sites like bid20 must take some hints from the internet auction site performance history and reasons for their demise, and change the way they operate so that they can survive for longer periods.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Be diligent - Read all the contents of the documents you sign!

My learning in life so far is "read all the documents you sign". Be diligent. Try to be legally correct.

Where does this help?

  1. Housing loan documentation in India is a very complex process. One has to sign every page of a 50 to 100 page document that has all kinds of legal wording. One would be amazed at all the clauses written there and how each clause takes away your right to own the property for which you're taking the loan of course, in case of any default or breach of those terms. For example, I was thinking of closing the loan after 5 years. I knew that there was a clause that says that there will be a penalty if the loan is closed before 5 years. I missed an interim document sent by my bank telling me that the '5 year' limit had been removed and if you don't dispute it then you're in agreement with the modification of terms. If I had been diligent in reading every communication from my bank then I could have done something to protect my rights.

  2. In the house sale agreement, my builder had written a description of the property that is being sold. However, when a sale deed is being made for registering with the government body, the description of the property had been changed (probably with a profit motive). I had noticed it before the registration. After understanding the nature of modifications and some consultations with a lawyer, I could make the builder use the same property description in the sale agreement and the sale deed.

  3. Protection from fraudulent transaction on credit cards vary from bank to bank and from country to country. When I was in United States, online purchase protection used to cover even non delivery of items where, on dispute, the credit card company will refund money into your account and then follow-up with the merchant. However, in India it is different. The credit card companies wash their hands off once the credit card transaction is authorized by you. In case of online transactions this means that your money is gone the moment you've done a mouse click. Hehe! now that I understood the difference, I'm very careful (mostly, don't use the credit card for online purchase).